International support, energy independence or alliances with other States would be some examples of variables. " Within the framework of a conflict between two countries (A) and (B), both would be considered actors. Case Studyĭespite the complexity involved at first glance, the process is best understood through an example: To do this, not only is the previous work done on the variables, the actors and the events themselves taken into account, but this is complemented by a mathematical calculation that determines the probabilities of the scenarios.įinally, the most probable scenarios are analysed, taking into account the one that represents the desired future, and lines of action are designed to achieve this scenario. Thus, the key is to determine the probability of occurrence of each event. In this sense, the different scenarios will be defined based on some events that will take place and others that will not. Next, the same procedure is carried out with the actors, also identifying the ends and means available to each of them.Īs a result of the interaction between the actors and the system variables, events arise, whose only characteristic is that they may or may not occur. So the first step is to determine what those variables are and analyze how they relate to each other. The main elements that make up a system are the variables and the actors. These scenarios or alternatives for the future are the result of an extensive and detailed study that begins with the identification of the key elements that make up the system chosen for analysis (a conflict, a business sector, a market, a crisis or any other area of interest). The objective of this method, whose main reference is Michel Godet (French economist and expert in strategic foresight), is to look for the most probable scenarios among all the possible futures, in order to choose the most desirable one according to the interests of the organisation, company or government carrying out this analysis. How to develop a prospective methodology? The application of this methodology helps to reduce this uncertainty. These decisions are often affected by great uncertainty, which is even greater today due to the crisis situation caused by the COVID-19 epidemic and the great challenge of economic regeneration of those sectors that have been affected by the pandemic and the consequences it has brought. Why is the application of this methodology necessary? Today, this methodology is of vital importance in a global and complex environment where companies and governments must make medium and long-term decisions. In this sense, strategic foresight is strategic and methodological thinking, an attitude towards the problems of the future that guarantees a competitive advantage of anticipation and reduction of risk. This discipline assumes that the future is not unique, but multiple, so it is necessary to analyze the different alternatives for the future with the objective of choosing one (the most desirable) to build it from the present. 56), foresight could be defined as " the effort to make the most desirable future probable". Fortunately, today it is not necessary to go to the Oracle of Delphi it is enough to apply strategic foresight. Registration is mandatory and FREE.Human beings have always shown great concern about the future and have tried to reduce the uncertainty it causes by means of omens, forebodings and predictions from the most remote antiquity.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |